Baby Boom Benefits:

A Parametric Analysis (first-order approximation)

Matrix One:

Assume:

(1) size of cohort is ~76 million (born 1946-1964)

(2) 76 million / 18 years = ~4.2 million yearly (linear)

(3) ~$1,000 monthly benefit per retiree

(4) zero death rate 2008-2025 A.D.

Yr Count Total Retired Benefits/yr Total Benefits Year

-- ----- ------------- ------------- ---------------- ----

01 x 4.2M = 4,200,000 x $12,000/year = 50,400,000,000. 2008

02 x 4.2M = 8,400,000 x $12,000/year = 100,800,000,000. 2009

03 x 4.2M = 12,600,000 x $12,000/year = 151,200,000,000. 2010

04 x 4.2M = 16,800,000 x $12,000/year = 201,600,000,000. 2011

05 x 4.2M = 21,000,000 x $12,000/year = 252,000,000,000. 2012

06 x 4.2M = 25,200,000 x $12,000/year = 302,400,000,000. 2013

07 x 4.2M = 29,400,000 x $12,000/year = 352,800,000,000. 2014

08 x 4.2M = 33,600,000 x $12,000/year = 403,200,000,000. 2015

09 x 4.2M = 37,800,000 x $12,000/year = 453,600,000,000. 2016

10 x 4.2M = 42,000,000 x $12,000/year = 504,000,000,000. 2017

11 x 4.2M = 46,200,000 x $12,000/year = 554,400,000,000. 2018

12 x 4.2M = 50,400,000 x $12,000/year = 604,800,000,000. 2019

13 x 4.2M = 54,600,000 x $12,000/year = 655,200,000,000. 2020

14 x 4.2M = 58,800,000 x $12,000/year = 705,600,000,000. 2021

15 x 4.2M = 63,000,000 x $12,000/year = 756,000,000,000. 2022

16 x 4.2M = 67,200,000 x $12,000/year = 806,400,000,000. 2023

17 x 4.2M = 71,400,000 x $12,000/year = 856,800,000,000. 2024

18 x 4.2M = 75,600,000 x $12,000/year = 907,200,000,000. 2025

------------------

$8,618,400,000,000.

===================

Summary:

Cumulative cost of Baby Boom benefits (18 years): $8.6 trillion

Annual cost of Baby Boom benefits (year 2025): $907 billion

Further analysis must factor in expected death rate:

Matrix Two:

Assume:

(5) average life expectancy is 75 years (both genders)

Yr Count Total Retired Benefits/yr Total Benefits Year

-- ----- ------------- ------------- ---------------- ----

01 x 4.2M = 4,200,000 x $12,000/year = 50,400,000,000. 2008

02 x 4.2M = 8,400,000 x $12,000/year = 100,800,000,000. 2009

03 x 4.2M = 12,600,000 x $12,000/year = 151,200,000,000. 2010

04 x 4.2M = 16,800,000 x $12,000/year = 201,600,000,000. 2011

05 x 4.2M = 21,000,000 x $12,000/year = 252,000,000,000. 2012

06 x 4.2M = 25,200,000 x $12,000/year = 302,400,000,000. 2013

07 x 4.2M = 29,400,000 x $12,000/year = 352,800,000,000. 2014

08 x 4.2M = 33,600,000 x $12,000/year = 403,200,000,000. 2015

09 x 4.2M = 37,800,000 x $12,000/year = 453,600,000,000. 2016

10 x 4.2M = 42,000,000 x $12,000/year = 504,000,000,000. 2017

11 x 4.2M = 46,200,000 x $12,000/year = 554,400,000,000. 2018

12 x 4.2M = 50,400,000 x $12,000/year = 604,800,000,000. 2019

13 x 4.2M = 54,600,000 x $12,000/year = 655,200,000,000. 2020

14 x 4.2M = 58,800,000

( 4,200,000)

54,600,000 x $12,000/year = 655,200,000,000. 2021

15 x 4.2M = 63,000,000

( 8,400,000)

54,600,000 x $12,000/year = 655,200,000,000. 2022

16 x 4.2M = 67,200,000

(12,600,000)

54,600,000 x $12,000/year = 655,200,000,000. 2023

17 x 4.2M = 71,400,000

(16,800,000)

54,600,000 x $12,000/year = 655,200,000,000. 2024

18 x 4.2M = 75,600,000

(21,000,000)

54,600,000 x $12,000/year = 655,200,000,000. 2025

------------------

$7,862,400,000,000.

===================

Summary:

Cumulative cost of Baby Boom benefits (18 years): $7.9 trillion

Annual cost of Baby Boom benefits (2020-2025): $655 billion

Further analysis must factor in a declining birth rate

after birth control circa 1964: using the above assumptions,

the 4.2 million who die in 2026 are replaced by a smaller average

number of new retirees.

Matrix Three:

Assume:

(6) average birth rate drops to 3.2 million per year after 1964

(7) average death rate stays at 4.2 million per year thru 2039

when Baby Boom is gone (net -1 million change per year)

Yr Count Total Retired Benefits/yr Total Benefits Year

-- ----- ------------- ------------- ---------------- ----

19 54,600,000

( 1,000,000)

53,600,000 x $12,000/year = 643,200,000,000. 2026

20 52,600,000 x $12,000/year = 631,200,000,000. 2027

21 51,600,000 x $12,000/year = 619,200,000,000. 2028

22 50,600,000 x $12,000/year = 607,200,000,000. 2029

23 49,600,000 x $12,000/year = 595,200,000,000. 2030

24 48,600,000 x $12,000/year = 583,200,000,000. 2031

25 47,600,000 x $12,000/year = 571,200,000,000. 2032

26 46,600,000 x $12,000/year = 559,200,000,000. 2033

27 45,600,000 x $12,000/year = 547,200,000,000. 2034

28 44,600,000 x $12,000/year = 535,200,000,000. 2035

29 43,600,000 x $12,000/year = 523,200,000,000. 2036

30 42,600,000 x $12,000/year = 511,200,000,000. 2037

31 41,600,000 x $12,000/year = 499,200,000,000. 2038

32 40,600,000 x $12,000/year = 487,200,000,000. 2039

33 40,600,000 x $12,000/year = 487,200,000,000. 2040

34 40,600,000 x $12,000/year = 487,200,000,000. 2041

35 40,600,000 x $12,000/year = 487,200,000,000. 2042

36 40,600,000 x $12,000/year = 487,200,000,000. 2043

-------------------

$17,724,000,000,000.

====================

Summary:

Cumulative cost of all benefits (36 years): $17.7 trillion

Annual cost of Baby Boom benefits (2020-2025): $655 billion

Annual cost of benefits after Baby Boom (2026-2043) $643-487 billion

Sincerely yours,

/s/ Paul Andrew Mitchell, B.A., M.S.

Private Attorney General, Criminal Investigator and

Federal Witness: 18 U.S.C. 1510, 1512-13, 1964(a)

http://www.supremelaw.org/decs/agency/private.attorney.general.htm

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